Re: Genealogy For The Beginner

On Tue, 19 Feb 2008 15:41:07 -0000, bobg@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 (Robert Grumbine)
wrote:

>In article <3psdr3tni8ulkd0b7bo06bufjvblm8uslh@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
>Bob LeChevalier  <lojbab@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>Haines Brown <brownh@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>>Bob has touched upon some classic philosophical issues. Perhaps by
>>>exploring them a bit we can arrive at a better grasp of the
significance
>>>of data and their interpretation.
>>>
>>>The first thing that needs to be done is to be clear about the
>>>difference between data and facts.
>>>...
>>
>>I find nothing in your summary objectionable.  But you omitted one
>>concept I don't fully understand myself in its technical aspects, but
>>still use metaphorically when thinking about data and facts.  
>>
>>That concept is the one of "fuzzy" truth values (and thereby fuzzy
>>logic).  Very seldom can we assign perfect truth or perfect falsehood
>>to an alleged fact, and sometimes we aren't all that sure what
>>standard of truth we want to apply to a putative fact.  
>>
>>Hugh has three possible ancestors to his earliest "proven" ancestor.
>>He could, by whatever means he chose, assign a fuzzy truth value to
>>each of them, thereby entertaining all three possibilities at once.
>>If he ever gets further information, the truth values he assigns might
>>change.
>
>  Precisely.  
>
>  Or, as I mentioned more briefly elsewhere, I'd like to have some
>software sup****t for working with the method of multiple hypotheses.
>
>  To back up a second, I view all of the genealogy and family history
>I do as a matter of hypothesis building and testing.  (My day job
>is in science, surprise).  My great grandmother Anna, I met, for
>instance.  Of course I only know that she's my great grandmother
>because I was told so, even if by people (her daughter, for instance)
>who should know.  So maybe that's a pretty strong hypothesis.  But,
>her parents, ... well, that's weaker if not entirely vacant.  One of 
>my great grandfathers, I have relatively good hypotheses about, but
>his parents are where I have a dozen candidates at the moment.  Very
>low confidence w.r.t. any of them.  Still, fair confidence that it's
>one of the group.  
>
>  Your ideas for display methods sound good (and like something
>I've thought about myself).  
>
>  One addition I'd make is that the boxes (mother's father's mother's
>mother) are themselves certain -- there certainly was such a person.
>Which person it is, not so obvious.  But the slot itself is definite
>even if we only have uncertain candidates with which to occupy it.
>A different drawback to softwares is that they don't seem to permit
>us to attach multiple candidates to the box.  We may be quite certain
>that they are only candidates for that particular box, while still
>being quite uncertain as to which person is the proper occupant.  
>
>-- 
>Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/
Science faqs and amateur
activities notes and links.
>Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too
much 
>evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than
they 
>would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New
Sciences 

Main Entry: hy·poth·e·sis  
Pronunciation: \hi-'pä-th?-s?s\ 
Function: noun 
Inflected Form(s): plural hy·poth·e·ses  \-?sez\ 
Etymology: Greek, from hypotithenai to put under, suppose, from hypo-
+ tithenai to put — more at do 
Date: circa 1656 
1 a: an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument b: an
interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the
ground for action
2: a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its
logical or empirical consequences
3: the antecedent clause of a conditional statement

How does one do any of those for most families prior to about 1900
because there is seldom, if ever, a way to contest recorded entries
since additional eveidence will probably never be available.

If you can't test the truth/accuracy seems like recorded statements
must be accepted as fact thus no longer hypotheses.

Hugh