on 18/04/2008 07:36 PM, leoandlinda at leoandlinda@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
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>
>
> I agree, Cheryl. It's inevitable. You are absolutely right. Just
> getting a lot wordier than you here.....
>
> My own comments would be that:
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If you can't proof it, don't take it as fact.
>
Ah, the mark of a true historian. Too much "revisionist" history
has been perpetrated on us by others glossing over real facts and
substituting unproven theories instead. As my hard headed father is
fond of saying about his days as a physics professor, "those kids
want to say, 'I repeal the law of gravity,' step off the roof and
kill themselves". In essence, facts are unalterable and to deny
them will not change them
> But after that process, the *being a researcher part* truly begins.
> When the records run out, you work with hypotheses, and
> probabilities. And you label them as such. Use every possible
> detail to figure out those probabilities. You include the info that
> is most likely, and then keep looking at everything. Keep analyzing.
True!
I discovered long ago that research and analysis is never really
finished. Only that the number of possible data points hit the
immutable law of dimini****ng returns. At the same time, I am
positively amazed at the amount of inferential material that is
buried deep within the data we have. In many cases I have been able
to pin the DOB of a spouse down to a single year using the date of
marriage and sibling order. I have found many other examples
besides that one. It is a matter of carefully inspecting and
drawing reasonable conclusions. But then, sometimes we must be
willing to take logical leaps of faith before there is proof
positive!
> Others may have found something that makes your possibility less
> likely, or just plain wrong. Or there may be a well-reasoned
> article in a journal that drops your 'probability of being right'
> from 85% to 30%, and sends you hunting in what might be a more
> fruitful direction.
Or proves your hypothesis beyond a shadow of a doubt for one of
those EUREKA moments! (I have had a few of them.)
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>
> If you don't end up with possibles, perhaps a probable, and a
> number of question marks, then you've stopped too soon <grins>.
>
> Linda S
> leoandlinda <leoandlinda@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
How true!
Regards, Arnold
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